We just published Doug Shapiro’s absolutely first-rate keynote presentation about the likely disruption generative AI poses to Hollywood. This was a great presentation. As many attendees told us after the presentation “Doug is simply cogent”.
Here is the full panel video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bT5gBCPBA6s
Here is an overview of the points Doug laid out in his presentation.
Doug Shapiro breaks down how generative AI is shaking up media & entertainment, using the the example of streaming + social media’s disruption of distribution as a reference. Doug maps out how disruption tends to play out and how AI might follow a similar path to streaming/social media’s disruption of distribution. In his presentation, Doug points to big patterns like how cheaper, scalable tools like AI could lead to more niche content, bigger roles for fans, and new kinds of media entirely. In the end, Doug asks several big questions: When there’s infinite content, what becomes scarce? What becomes valuable? What new kinds of stories or formats can AI make possible? And how might distribution and profits get reshaped?
Key Questions
What exactly will generative AI disrupt in media?
Generative AI is expected to disrupt content creation more than distribution (distribution has already been thoroughly disrupted and we’re still feeling the shockwaves of it). This disruption will overhaul how content is made, potentially lowering costs and enabling new forms of creative expression.
How will generative AI change value creation and redistribution in the media business?
The redefinition of value will be HUGE in the coming decade, but the exact dynamics remain unclear. The challenge lies in understanding when there’s infinite content, what remains scarce? In an environment where high production value content becomes cheaper and more automated, what remains valuable?
What are the unique creative opportunities offered by generative AI?
Generative AI opens the door for “neworphic” media formats. These are fresh, innovative formats and storytelling methods that leverage AI’s unique properties. Identifying and exploiting these new creative forms is crucial for creators and companies to stay ahead. In many ways thinking about traditional 90-minute linear stories is like thinking about movies in terms of stage plays.
How will generative AI affect fan engagement and participation?
AI’s low cost and scalability could democratize content creation, leading to more fan-generated content and interactive media experiences. This could reshape the relationship between creators and audiences, fostering deeper engagement.
What lessons can we draw from the disruption of traditional TV in the US?
The US TV industry’s experience with disruption (from cable to streaming) are a valuable case study on how media ecosystems adapt. This history underscores the importance of flexibility and innovation in managing change driven by technology.
Why is it important to keep asking the right questions about AI’s impact?
Because so many outcomes of AI remain uncertain, Doug stresses the importance of continuously interrogating how AI changes media economics, creativity, and distribution. Asking the right questions sets the stage for strategic foresight and effective decision-making.
How should media executives approach the uncertainty around AI?
Focus on “pattern recognition, synthesis, forecasting, and call to action”. Focusing on this will help you better anticipate shifts rather than be blindsided by its rapid evolution.
What role does scarcity play in the future of content?
Scarcity traditionally defines value in media. For example, there are very few high production value superhero movies, so they were valuable. But with AI lowering barriers to content creation, our definition of scarcity is changing. You need to rethink what remains rare, whether that’s originality, human creativity, or brand trust. Then focus on creating what you consider scarce.
How might AI enable new content formats and distribution methods?
Generative AI could lead to the emergence of formats not previously possible, such as hyper-personalized video, AI-driven live streams, and vast AB testing to fine-tune content in real time. This innovation will likely shift how audiences consume and interact with media.
Is Trust the new oil?
Doug calls Trust “the new oil” alluding to the famous notion that ‘data was the new oil’ a decade ago. That means in a media environment where there is an overwhelming and infinite volume of content available, perhaps Trust becomes the most valuable currency. People continually face an enormous amount of information and media, and the key question for consumers is “who do you trust?” Trust for accuracy, for quality, for taste, for curation, etc.